The U.S. Federal Reserve is expected to raise interest rate before the end of this year, but the path for the rate hike will not be smooth, as the economy will encounter shocks, Stanley Fischer, vice chairman of the Fed, said at a forum in New York on Monday.
According to his speech released by the central bank on its website, the vice chairman believed the liftoff of the target federal funds range will likely be warranted before the end of the year, in view of the significant cumulative progress in the economic recovery.
In deciding when the liftoff has come, Fischer stressed the central bank will continue to monitor a wide range of information regarding labor market conditions, inflation, and financial and international developments.
But a smooth path for liftoff will almost certainly not be realized, because the U.S. economy will encounter shocks, such as the unexpected decline in the price of oil, or geopolitical developments that may have major budgetary and confidence implications, said the vice chairman.
He said that the Fed would be considering moving the interest rate "up and down" in the future, depending on economic information.
Last week, the U.S. central bank dropped its pledge to be "patient" in beginning to raise interest rates, setting the stage for lifting benchmark borrowing costs later this year.
The Fed said it will "be appropriate" to raise interest rates when it has seen "further improvement" in the labor market and is "reasonably confident" that inflation will move back to its target of 2 percent over the medium term.